What's Going on With Sean Couturier?

The Flyers' longest-serving player and team captain, Sean Couturier, is struggling to put the puck in the net this year. His last goal came on December 7th against Colorado, half a season ago. He is currently on pace for eight goals and 41 points. Nobody should be excited about those totals with a salary cap of $7.75 million over the next four years. At 33 years of age, it's doubtful he will suddenly be "back" and is more likely to degrade than improve.

So, as the title asks, in the most Jerry Seinfeld voice possible, "What's the deal with Sean Couturier?" Is he washed? Should they publicly strip the C, drop him to the fourth line, or consider a buy-out? 

We're going to take a look at Couturier's offensive struggles, try to diagnose the issue, and determine whether this is fixable and how that impacts the Flyers' view of him moving forward. 

Written January 31st, during the LA Kings vs. Philadelphia Flyers game. All data as of that time.

I'm a big ol' nerd. If you follow me on social media or have read anything I've ever published, that much is clear. I'm going to be naturally bullish on a player like Couturier, who at his peak was an underlying stats monster even if he wasn't putting up 100-point seasons. The player card above tells the tale as much: he's a player who drives a decent amount of offense, is dominant at preventing chances when he's on the ice, but is really struggling to put the puck into the net. That's roughly a middle six center in terms of value in my estimation, a bit more in my opinion than the projected wins above replacement (WAR %) seen above. 

Using Hockey Stats' data for finishing, we can see this isn't just bad luck. Couturier has struggled since the 21-2022 season to finish his chances.

There's a noticeably larger gap between his finishing since 2021-22 and previous in his career. If we just look at the differential, it's even clearer.

As a sanity check, looking at a different expected goal model, we get a similar view of the story. Here's Hockey Viz's shooting history. 

We've established that this drop off is being picked up by the models. The question now is: why? Let's look at his finishing so far in 2025-26 compared to a year he did well: 2018-2019.

You can tell from the above that in most areas of the ice, Couturier is shooting below average. Most of his expected goals come from around the net and in tight. There's a little bit of an above-average shot from a small distance away. His tips/deflections still look about average, even if they're a smaller portion of his shot diet.

Interestingly enough, there are a lot of differences between the two seasons. For starters, most of his heat map for wrists/snaps comes from the left dot. It seems as though Couturier was far more effective shooting at distance, which has largely disappeared from his game.

Is there an issue with him shooting at a distance? Possibly. This year, Couturier had a 14.8 percent shooting average, four percent higher than his normal average. This year? He's down to six percent. Perhaps in 2018-2019, that difference in shooting average could be attributed to just a hot streak, and everything outside of that has been a regression. 

What is more worrisome is that it does not mean that it will bounce back to its average. In 2022-23, Couturier ended the season with a 5.73 shooting percentage; in 2024-25, 9.68 percent. He's been shooting well under his average for awhile and with the recent trends, I'm not sure that comes back. 

Is it a coaching issue? Possibly. Couturier and previous coach John Tortorella did not seem to be on the same page, as Tortorella frequently made it clear he did not see Couturier as his ideal center. But what about current coach Rick Tocchet? How has the team fared under him?

Lots of plus shooting from distance, a little softer around the net. This has been an area of focus for Tocchet since his arrival: get pucks to the net and crash it. The Flyers haven't been particularly dangerous yet with that strategy. 

Because of the historical trend of Couturier's declining finishing prowess, I doubt it's just a side effect of Tocchet's preferred style of hockey, and I'm skeptical that it's just defensively-oriented coaches in general.  

I do believe at this time, with the recent trends, there is a chance Sean Couturier's scoring touch is just depleted. Goal scorers tend to remain goal scorers into their thirties, and this just might be what the tail end of Couturier's offensive game looks like. Watching the game, he's had a hard time controlling the puck in the zone and getting dangerous chances off. 

However, Sean Couturier is still a useful player, even in a middle-six role. He's just closer to a Noah Cates-level impact player (who is on the same general points pace as Couturier with similarly strong defensive acumen) at this point, rather than one of the best centers in hockey as he was at his peak. I've largely held the belief that your ratio of goals to assists is irrelevant as long as you're producing points at a rate higher than what is going against you. To that degree, Couturier's strong general underlying expected goal percentage of 56.12 percent (second on the team) as well as strong Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (or RAPM) results would make me feel that his presence is a boon rather than a negative.

So what the Flyers do from here is quite interesting. As of today's game, Couturier is on the fourth line with notable grinders Nic Deslauriers and Garnet Hathaway, who are surely not going to unlock his scoring potential. I truly believe this is only an issue due to the Flyers' lack of depth down the middle, as Couturier in a third-line center role would be good for the team. 

Does the front office feel the same? Time will tell. I would think it would be a mistake to look to abandon Couturier's contract unless he's willing to be moved. Trading him for future assets will likely make them worse unless they get back an upgrade in a trade. And without a clear-cut player to take on the tougher matchups, it might be best to ride it out for now.